It’s no secret that publishers schedule the release of their greatest titles for the end of the year so that they can maximize their sales when moms around the world rush out to buy little Johnny his favorite new video game in time for Christmas. But what affect does this have on smaller titles from lesser-known developers? Last year we saw such dismal sales from fantastic games like Metal Arms and Beyond Good & Evil that no sequel will ever be made for what could have otherwise been two great new franchises. Meanwhile the mediocre True Crime sold through the roof.

A recent report from Banc of America Securities, a global equities research group, expresses concern that this trend is going to get worse before it gets better (if it ever does). According to the report, more games will be released this holiday shopping season than in any other before it, and that the market saturation might further push smaller developers out of the picture entirely. Retailers only have so much shelf space, and when it comes to deciding which to display, the decision is always made by the almighty dollar.

However this is not only limited to smaller developers but affects the key players as well. Big name titles such as Halo 2 and GTA: San Andreas will likely sell fewer titles than expected due to the overwhelming competition, and companies like Microsoft and Sony will be spending big money advertising these and other titles. "Apart from The Sims 2.0, we do not consider any game this holiday out of harm’s way of the competition." Banc of America securities predicts that Electronic Arts could lose as much as 2 to 4 percent market share.

"We have very low expectations for games of other developers with less-known brands including Acclaim, Midway (except Mortal Kombat), Atari, Eidos, Vivendi (apart from Half-Life 2, if it is released) and even Microsoft (apart from Halo 2). With the competition out there and large number of titles, some games will just not receive any shelf space from retailers, and initial shipments of titles will be very low, even by historical standards. Expect many disasters this holiday."

Bad news for the video game industry is bad news for gamers. You might be sitting at home right now wondering why there aren’t many new games to play. The summer seems to be an ideal time to release games, what with kids out of school and all. But publishers tend to think with their wallets and not their brains. Hopefully this holiday shopping season will be a wake-up call to all of them, and with any luck we won’t lose any of our favorite small developers in the process.