“This year the stakes are higher then they’ve ever been. ”
E3 is generally considered the single biggest event in the North American game industry. It’s here that everyone generally pulls out their big guns and tries to upstage everyone else. Every year E3 is critical to a gaming companies business, but this year the stakes are higher then they’ve ever been. With at least ten, and maybe even a dozen mainstream systems on display, this year will be huge to every company taking place. I’ll be taking a look individually at each companies position going into E3, and give some speculation on what they need to do. All of the next generation CONSOLES will be covered at the end. Please note that this was started at the beginning of March, and is subject to being out of date on certain issues. Also, when I say present I don’t mean taking center stage, but simply that we’ll hopefully get some details. Sony and Nintendo have both confirmed that neither the PS3 or N5 will be at E3, but I should think they’ll at least be fielding some questions. The speculation offered in the next gen portion of the editorial pertains more to the next 6 months or so. I should also add that pretty much everything in this is an opinion, especially on things like what will or won’t be there, and what will or won’t be on what console. The truth is I’ve heard both sides from every source, so I’m offering what I think will be most likely.
Sony
This year, Sony may be sporting three consoles to E3, the PS2, the PS3, and the PSP. Sony had a rock solid E3 last year, showing strong support for the PS2 and making the bombshell announcement of the PSP, but as big as last years show was, this show is even bigger. Many experts think Sony has gotten complacent in its top spot, and they’re backed up by the lessening gap between the PS2 and the Xbox/Gamecube in worldwide sales.
Sony HAS to show strong support for the PS2 again this year. Both Nintendo and Microsoft are brining a plethora of big names to show, and it just doesn’t look like the PS2 can match up. Some games that obviously need to take center stage are MSG3: Snake Eater, GT 4, some kind of Final Fantasy and the next GTA, should be released on the PS2.
It would be huge for Sony to have GTA news at E3, regardless of what system it’s on. GTA may be the most popular game ever, in terms of hype and sales, and having that presence would certainly take some steam out of Halo 2 and Metroid Prime 2. The other big question will be Squares presence at the show. Sony used to be the ONLY place to find Square-Enix’s big names, but they’ve been slowing losing support to Nintendo and the PC. The presence of FFXII, or the rumored FFVII remake would be huge for Sony.
The other big question is in what form we’ll see the PSP. Last year at E3, Sony made the bold prediction that we would see the PSP in 2004, and E3 should tell us weather they can walk the walk. The fact of the matter is that posting primitive specs isn’t going to assure most people that the console is on schedule. Everyone knows that the specs are going to change, but actual video of the system in progress would certainly solidify the dizzying exceptions the PSP has to meet.
If it’s going to be launching this year, Sony will have to bring games as well as the console. Sony needs to tell us what we can expect from this system. At this point it’s still in the limbo if Sony will take Nintendo’s lead and put remakes on their console (perhaps the FFVII remake won’t be on a console), or develop completely new games. We know pretty much what to expect from the PS2 and PS3, but so little is still know about the PSP that it should take center stage at Sony’s E3.
Microsoft
Microsoft enters in a bit of a different predicament than anyone else. They’re probably not going to make and real waves this year, unless you consider nonstop footage of Halo 2 “real waves” (which you might). We already know all of their big hitters (Half-life 2, Halo 2, Doom 3, Full Spectrum Warrior, Fable ext.), which leaves little room for surprise. I’m not saying it’s going to be a good show, but let’s not kid ourselves here, systems always trump games, as shown last year when the PSP upstaged Halo 2.
Honestly, I can see half of Microsoft’s E3 coverage be hype Halo 2, because they really don’t have all that much more to show that we haven’t seen already, save the Xbox Next which we’ll be covering later. But yeah, not much else to say for Microsoft, we already know it’s gonna be all about Halo 2, and quite frankly, despite having Xbox Live, I could care less.
Nintendo
Ah, this is the big kahuna, Nintendo’s fate as a company may very well rest on E3. I’m not saying a bad show and they pack up and go home, but after last years abysmal showing, Nintendo could lose a lot of momentum recently generated by the price drop. The fact is they’re brining at least four systems to the show, and maybe five.
Let’s start with the obvious, the DS. Many were surprised to see Nintendo bring this sucker into the mainstream before E3, but in hindsight, it was the right choice. The fact of the matter is that the DS is nothing like the gaming community has ever seen before, and many people reacted negatively, dismissing it as the Virtua Boy reborn. But given some time, I think a lot more people are warming up to the idea; at least developers are. Nintendo has got everyone’s interest, and I expect games, prices, and a release date THIS E3. Nintendo has always been known for getting new technology on the market pretty quickly after announcing it (SP out months after announcement) so I fully expect the DS there and an integral part of the show.
The more important issue, however, is how Nintendo displays the DS. The one thing absolutely critical to the success of this system is first and third party support. Miyamoto has to be on a game, and not Pac man, I’m talking Pikmin (which would work very well on the DS) Zelda, Mario, or something on that level. Nintendo never really fully got behind the VB, which was one reason why it never even got off the ground. You can’t tell me that you wouldn’t have at least considered a VB if it was packing a new Zelda game. Slowly but surely, some third party developers, like THQ, are saying they’ll support the DS. Having names like THQ is nice, but they need the big three to get behind this thing. EA, Ubi Soft, and Square-Enix. I think all of these developers; Square-Enix in particular, can have quite a bit of fun with this thing.
Next is the Gameboy Advance, and a possible follow up to it. I think that there’s a good chance Nintendo will reveal the fourth iteration of gameboy at E3. Their shibboleth ever since announcing the DS was that it was NOT a successor to the gameboy, but rather a third pillar. Nintendo can solidify that thought by showing, or at least announcing, the next line in gameboy. I think the stage is perfectly set for them to do so. They need a big story that everyone is going to be talking about, and they’ve already played the DS card, so why not now? Additionally, there seem to be no new big name GBA titles on the horizon for the most part. No Intelligent Systems (or Fire Emblem and Advance Wars fame) games, no Castlevanias, and really outside of Mario and Donkey Kong (here’s hoping it’s as good as Mario and Luigi) even Nintendo doesn’t have any heavy hitters coming to bat. In short, the future of the GBA, whose market is becoming completely satirized, is looking rather bleak.
The next and most obvious question is whether or not the next Gamboy will be 3D or 2D. As much as I’d like to see another 2D system, I think Nintendo will explore that path with the DS, and conquer the 3D handheld market with the next gameboy. Bluntly put, they’re running out of things to port from the SNES, and a handheld N64 to match Sony’s handheld PS would be rather interesting, assuming (and praying) Nintendo is smart enough to peruse DISKS should they take this path. In conclusion, Nintendo is either going to announce a follow to the GBA or else a hell of a lot of games.
Next comes the most interesting part of Nintendo’s E3 lineup, everyone’s favorite indigo geometric shape. The Gamecube is in an interesting predicament right now, and I Think I see what Nintendo is going to do with it. As of right now, their big post expo hitters are Metroid Prime 2, Geist, a follow up to Wind Waker and maybe Pikmin 2. After that, there’s not really a whole lot in the way of third party. Sound sorta like the N64 at the 2000 E3 with only Majoras Mask and Perfect Dark coming up? I think Nintendo is ready to let the Cube slowly fade into the distance and focus on getting the N5 off the ground with a solid start.
One other thing I simply can’t ignore is wondering what exactly Square is going to do with Nintendo at this point. As of late, Square-Enix has been batting far from a thousand. FFX-2 was not really that good, Crystal Chronicles got a lukewarm reception at best, and FFXI is a nitch game. In truth, Square-Enix’s biggest success was Final Fantasy Tactics Advance. I’ve always held the opinion that Square did it’s best work in the second dimension rather than the third, and it’ll be interesting to see where they put their focus this E3.
Next Gen
The next gen is the PS3, N5, and Xbox next respectively. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing their beasts this year, as all the companies have backed off original claims that they’d be there this year. However, I’m going to assume that they won’t ignore the existence of these consoles, and you have to expect that they’ll at least reconfirm that they’re on track. There are several key components that need to be covered, and while they vary slightly from company to company, the big ones remain the same. Price, date, extras, and games.
Price and dates are two interesting subjects. With at least a year and a half till launch date, it’s ridiculous to offer even ballpark figures. What I think is going to happen is that every company is going to head in there with a number in mind, ready to say, and if any other company says a number, they’ll at least have an answer. It’s pretty clear that 2005 was a bit ambitious, judging by everyone’s backing off presenting their consoles at E3, but especially Nintendo can’t afford to not have a date. As for price, Steven’s ridiculous early speculation is 350 for Sony, 400 for Microsoft, and 300 for Nintendo.
The other big question is extras. By extras I mean backwards compatibility, DVD/CD playback, and Broadband ports. It should be noted for those who haven’t heard that XBN will not be supporting a hard drive, so it’s hardly a stretch to assume the same for Nintendo and Sony. I’m going to say all three of the above will be absent from Nintendo and Sony, and only the broadband port will remain on the XBN. There’s not really any reason IMO to include a DVD playback anymore. DVD players are the new standard, and I can’t see why anyone would waste their money supporting that, and without a hard drive to burn songs onto, I don’t think Microsoft will bother with CD playback. As for backwards compatibility, there’s really no precedent for Nintendo or Microsoft, and assuming (hoping) Nintendo goes to regular disks for the N5, I don’t think it would be possible there. I don’t think Microsoft is the type of company that really cares about dragging out the lifespan of old games, so I’d be surprised to see them go for that feature. Sony might do it, but I just don’t think there’s enough demand for that feature to justify it. Honestly, when’s the last time you played your 64 or PSX?
One thing that I’m very interested in is how much companies are focusing on games for the next gen. The only reason why Xbox got off to a better start than the Gamecube was Halo, much like the only reason the 64 started out so strong was Super Mario 64. The point is that launch date games make a HUGE impact of initial sales, and the stakes are much higher this time given the assumed close proximity of all three launch dates. Nintendo has already stated that Mario 128 is in development for the N5. Given, this statement was made a while ago, I still think that Nintendo is planning on bringing at least one big gun to the starting gate. Microsoft is brining out the heavy guns this year with Halo 2, Doom 3, Half Life 2, and Fable. Making the ambitious assumption that they’re all going to come out close the original projected dates, that should give their big time studios (namely Bungie) enough time to get ready for XBN. It’s hard to say what Sony will be doing. It should be very interesting to see how much the companies learned from this last gen, and how each will adjust to three consoles hitting shelves at about the same time
Last but not least, PHANTOM!!
Who am I kidding, no one cares.
