June 28^th, 2008 (1:01pm) - Pachter predicts that 2010 will be the year the defines this generation of consoles and that the sales so far may not determine who ’wins’ this round. He said, "Only wealthy or hardcore gamers have purchased consoles so far, given that the PS3 is still $399, the 360 is still $349, and the Wii is still $249. When prices drop below $200, the mass market [for 360 and PS3] will emerge."

He also predicted that GTAIV’s release would do little to move consoles and that was case. He goes on to say, "The market for next-gen games is not close to exhaustion. As consoles come down in price, the manufacturers will sell more of them, and the market will continue to expand."

To date, Nintendo has sold an estimated 28 million Wiis worldwide in just 18 months, followed by Microsoft with 19 million Xbox 360s in 30 months, and Sony with 14 million PlayStation 3s in 18 months.

So what would change the current dominance of Nintendo? well, the fact that 90% of the last generation of consoles were sold after the sub $200 price drops. That is a fairly shocking number and manages to make many wonder if PS2 backwards compatibility was worth $600.

Pachter finishes up commenting on how many games "The number of next-gen games will likely stay around present levels, primarily because of the cost of development. But I don’t think that will impact sales much if we are offered only 200 next-gen games each year."